Probability test practice for trading firms
Maven Securities runs a probability assessment, and SIG and other firms report probability-heavy online tests. Practice original questions on counting, dice, coins and cards, conditional probability, expected value and estimation, each with a worked solution and the slip behind every wrong option.
18 questions in 30 minutes with minus-one marking, or 17 harder questions in 60 minutes with a calculator. Every option is explained.
Or try a free eight-question drillTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that the total is at least 9?
What the firms say
- Maven Securities: its probability assessment “is designed to understand how you approach probability-based questions”; it advises using the full time limit.
- SIG: graduate trader postings list an online assessment of “quantitative and problem-solving skills”; candidates describe probability, statistics and logic problems with a calculator allowed.
- PEAK6 and Optiver candidates also report probability and expected-value questions; neither firm publishes a format.
Firm guides: Maven Securities · SIG (Susquehanna) · Akuna Capital · PEAK6
Reported formats, and our timed mock
No firm publishes its question counts, timings or scoring. The timed formats below are what candidates and prep sites report for recent cycles; use them as practice settings and follow the instructions in your own invitation.
18 questions in 30 minutes, minus 1 for a wrong answer
Reported by Maven Securities candidates for its probability test.
Practice this format17 questions in 60 minutes, calculator allowed
Reported by SIG candidates for its problem-solving assessment, which mixes probability with other quantitative problems. Our version uses probability questions only.
Practice this format
What our questions cover
- Combinatorics: combinations, permutations, repeated letters, seating, grid paths, distributing identical items
- Dice, coins and cards: sums, at least one, exactly k, drawing without replacement
- Conditional probability and Bayes’ rule with base rates
- Expected value: fair prices, dice games with a reroll option, waiting times, linearity, option-style payoffs, variance
- Estimation: rule of 72, square roots, products, the normal approximation and the birthday problem
Free drills
- Probability drill: mixed
Eight questions across counting, dice and cards, conditional probability, expected value and estimation, each with a worked solution.
- Combinatorics drill
Choosing, arranging and distributing: combinations, permutations, repeated letters, seating and grid paths.
- Dice, coins and cards drill
Two and three dice, coin sequences, two-card hands and draws without replacement.
- Conditional probability drill
Given information, Bayes’ rule with base rates, two-headed coins and boxes of balls.
- Expected value drill
Fair prices, dice games with a reroll option, waiting times, linearity and option-style payoffs.
- Quick estimation drill
Closest-answer questions: compounding, square roots, products and probability rules of thumb.
Drill probability, then sit the timed test
18 questions in 30 minutes with minus-one marking, or 17 harder questions in 60 minutes with a calculator. Every option is explained.
Or try a free eight-question drillHow to get faster
- Count ordered outcomes for dice: two dice have 36 equally likely results, not 21.
- For “at least one”, use the complement: 1 − P(none).
- For conditional questions, shrink the sample space to what you were told, then count.
- Expected value is linear: the expected total is the sum of the expected parts, even when they depend on each other.
- Under minus-one marking, a blind guess among four options loses half a point on average and a 50/50 guess breaks even, so answer only when you can do better than a coin flip between two options.
Common questions
What is on the Maven Securities probability test?
Maven says its probability assessment tests how you approach probability-based questions and that you should use the full time limit. Its sample question asks for an expected waiting time with multiple-choice options. Candidates report about 18 multiple-choice questions in 30 minutes with a point lost for each wrong answer; Maven does not publish this.
Is a calculator allowed on trading probability tests?
It depends on the firm. Optiver states that calculators are not permitted in its assessment. Candidates report that SIG’s problem-solving assessment allows a calculator. Our 18-in-30 mock assumes no calculator; the 17-in-60 mock assumes one and uses harder, multi-step questions.
How hard are the questions?
Our standard questions match what candidates describe: two dice, two cards, a short Bayes problem or a simple game. The longer mock adds multi-step problems such as a reroll option, waiting for a run of heads or collecting every face of a die.
18 questions in 30 minutes with minus-one marking, or 17 harder questions in 60 minutes with a calculator. Every option is explained.
Or try a free eight-question drillMore trading test practice
Firm statements checked November 2026: Optiver Europe recruitment FAQ · Optiver Sydney campus recruiting FAQs · Optiver US campus recruiting Q&A · Maven Securities emerging talent · Flow Traders graduates · IMC recruitment process.
Optiver, Maven Securities, Flow Traders, Susquehanna International Group (SIG), IMC, Akuna Capital and PEAK6 are trademarks of their respective owners. Game Assessment Prep is an independent practice site and is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any of these firms. Every question is original; none is taken from a firm’s assessment or another prep provider.